Low Snowpack and the Western Ranch
By nearly any measure, the American West is nearing the end of its driest winter on record. According to the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), every major river basin across the West is currently in a state of snow drought, with 97% of Colorado SNOTEL stations reporting snow drought conditions and statewide snowpack sitting at a record-low 63% of median. In parts of the southern Colorado River Basin, snowpack has dropped to less than one-third of normal. Interestingly, the culprit was not simply a lack of precipitation. In many areas, total water year precipitation was near normal. The problem has been unseasonable warmth. Record high temperatures throughout the fall and early winter meant that moisture that would typically accumulate as snow in the mountains instead fell as rain and ran off, bypassing the natural, high-country water storage system that the West depends on.
For those of us who spend our lives working on, around, and thinking about ranch land, a headline like that triggers an instinctive sense of concern. There are legitimate reasons for that. But as is often the case with the land, the full picture is more nuanced than any single headline can capture. A dry, mild winter brings genuine challenges, along with some tangible benefits worth acknowledging. We have all been hearing the same scary stat lines and overwhelming challenges that may lie ahead for the West this summer. While this narrative is certainly concerning, we sought to deliver a more balanced report on how an extremely dry winter impacts the landscape and acknowledge some of the potential positive outcomes that come along with the negative ones.
The map above, published by the NRCS as of April 8th, puts current snowpack numbers in stark relief. The Arkansas Basin sits at just 11% of median snow water equivalent, the Upper Rio Grande at 12%, the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan basin at 13%, and the Gunnison at 18%. Even the comparatively better-off basins in the northern part of the state, the South Platte at 32% and the Yampa-White-Little Snake at 28%, are a fraction of where they would typically be heading into the heart of spring. There is no gray area with figures like these. Anyone pulling water from these basins this summer should know what they are up against, if they don’t already.
Running on Empty
Snowpack is not just a weather statistic, but the foundation of the West's water system, a slow-release reservoir that feeds rivers, fills ditches, and recharges the aquifers that ranches across the region depend on from late spring through summer. When that reservoir comes up short, the downstream effects can and often do compound.
The numbers going into spring are stark. Ben Livneh, associate professor at University of Colorado Boulder and director of the Western Water Assessment, noted that forecasted reservoir inflows for Colorado are currently among the lowest on record since detailed snowpack measurements began in the early 1980s. The city of Denver issued its first Stage 1 drought declaration since 2013. For ranches that irrigate from rivers, creeks, or ditch company shares, reduced runoff means reduced water allocation. As many of you are all too familiar with, Colorado operates under the prior appropriation doctrine, where the oldest rights hold the most senior priority. Junior rights holders will feel the effects first. Ranches that have historically put up two or three cuttings of hay may find themselves making do with one or in some cases none.
The effects reach beyond the hayfield. Ponds and spring sources that typically refill from snowmelt may not recover to normal levels, affecting livestock water through the summer. Grazing programs built around normal forage production may need to be adjusted earlier in the season than usual. And if spring precipitation comes in below normal, those stresses will compound as summer progresses.
The practical message for ranch operators: understand your water position now, not in July. Know where your rights sit in the priority call, communicate early with your ditch company, and build contingency into your hay and grazing plans. The ranches that manage dry years well are almost always the ones that started planning for them in the spring.
Not All Bad News
A mild winter is genuinely good news for wildlife, and by extension, for the landowners who care about what is living on their properties.
Colorado Parks and Wildlife biologists have noted that deer, elk, and pronghorn across the state are coming out of this winter in far better condition than typical years. The science behind why is well established. Research published in Ecology and Evolution found that ungulate mortality risk increases measurably with each unit of cumulative winter severity, and that the timing of spring snowmelt is the single largest driver of late-winter survival outcomes. An earlier green-up, which low-snow years tend to deliver, closes the late-winter energy gap before animals exhaust their fat reserves. A separate body of research on Rocky Mountain elk, published in Wildlife Monographs, found that cow body condition entering winter is a primary determinant of calf survival and recruitment the following spring. Cows that come through a mild winter with fat reserves intact are better positioned to produce and raise viable calves, and a broad synthesis of elk data across western North America reinforced this: total winter precipitation the prior year showed a strong negative relationship with calf recruitment, with hard winters leaving cows in poor enough condition to affect embryo development and calf fitness the following year.
The contrast with a hard winter is not a distant memory in Colorado. The winter of 2022-23 was catastrophic for big game across the northwest part of the state, with some elk populations reduced by half. Widespread winterkill forced CPW to cut roughly 31,000 combined hunting licenses for elk, deer, and pronghorn. The recovery since then has been remarkable. According to a report published last week by Colorado Outdoors Magazine, CPW's annual classification flights show the Bears Ears and White River herds returning to population objective range for the first time since 2022-23. Over 18,500 elk were observed in the White River drainage alone, a slight increase from the prior year. Spike bull ratios, a direct measure of calf survival from the previous year, climbed from under 10 per 100 cows in 2023 to 16 per 100 cows in 2025. CPW is now proposing a significant increase in antlerless licenses for 2026, with bull tags in the second and third rifle seasons returning to over-the-counter. For ranch owners with hunting programs in northwest Colorado, that is about as concrete a sign of recovery as there is. CPW specifically credited the back-to-back mild winters and the cooperation of private landowners for making the rebound possible.
Spring calving follows the same logic. Cows that didn't have work hard through a punishing winter arrive in better body condition, which typically means higher calf survival and less labor during calving checks. An earlier green-up, common in low-snow years when ground temperatures warm faster, can mean earlier turnout to grass and a lighter feed bill at one of the more expensive times of the ranching calendar.
Upland bird populations tend to benefit from mild winters as well, with better access to food and improved survival going into spring nesting season.
There are subtler benefits worth noting too. Less snowpack means a quieter runoff event in the spring, which translates to lower flood risk, less erosion along stream banks and meadow margins, and reduced infrastructure damage from high water. For properties with riparian improvements or flood-sensitive hay ground, a quiet spring runoff is not nothing.
What to Know Before You Buy or Sell
A low-snow year has a way of putting water infrastructure and water rights back at the center of the ranch due diligence conversation, which is frankly where they always belong. For buyers evaluating properties this spring, this is a good time to look beyond the acreage and the scenery and ask specific questions about water. What is the adjudication date and priority of the water rights appurtenant to the ranch? What does the ditch company's allocation history look like in below-normal water years? Is there reliable water well infrastructure to supplement surface water when stream flows run low?
Ranches with senior water rights or strong groundwater infrastructure are well positioned in years like this. Sellers with those assets have a story worth telling. The ability to sustain hay production and maintain livestock water through a dry cycle is a meaningful differentiator that speaks directly to the long-term productivity and resilience of a property.
The underlying fundamentals of Western ranch land remain intact. Experienced landowners have navigated dry years before, and they will again. Resilient properties that hold their value and productivity across weather cycles are the ones built on sound water infrastructure, well-managed range, and realistic operational planning. None of that changes with the snowpack.
Looking Ahead
Spring precipitation will play an important role in how this season unfolds. Colorado's peak snowpack typically arrives around mid-April, and researchers at University of Colorado Boulder note there is still a narrow window for additional accumulation. That said, the deficit heading into April is significant, and meaningful recovery would require an unusually wet spring across a broad geography. Water managers will have a clearer picture of summer allocations as seasonal forecasts sharpen over the coming weeks.
Years like this one have a way of clarifying just how much a ranch's water position matters, both for day-to-day operations and for long-term value. In particular, two of the properties we currently represent make that point better than we can on paper.
Elk Mountain Cattle Ranch in Park County is one of Colorado's most significant land offerings: 120,000 total acres at the headwaters of the South Platte River, with over 30 miles of named rivers and creeks within its borders and over 6,000 surface acres of stored South Platte water across Spinney Mountain and Elevenmile Canyon Reservoirs. The ranch carries an 81 acre-foot water right out of Spinney Mountain and has been operated as a working cow-calf and bison ranch by the same four-generation family for 40 years. Never before offered for sale, it represents the kind of senior, deeply adjudicated water position that stands apart in any year, and especially this one. Bar Star Ranch, also in the South Park Basin, tells a different but equally compelling water story. A completely private 150 acre-foot reservoir managed as a trophy fishery provides both operational water security, passive income, and exceptional stillwater angling for rainbow and brown trout well into the summer months.
If you have questions about how current water conditions might affect a property you own or are considering, or if you'd like to learn more about how any of the properties in our portfolio, stack up please don't hesitate to Contact Us.
